Why Dealing Fentanyl or Carrying a Gun Is Not Counted as a Crime in San Francisco
Amongst the glittering car glass on our sidewalks, to the circular tire tracks in the middle of our intersections, to the smell of human waste on our sidewalks, you sense that San Francisco is becoming less safe. Yet, the progressives and moderates spin different perspectives on the state of crime in San Francisco.
Both sides rely on the base effect– a statistical ploy whereby a person can choose the base year of comparison that suits their preconceived narrative. For instance, San Francisco progressives have chosen to compare the 56 homicides in 2022, to the 100+ homicides that occurred annually in the base years of the 1980’s (forty years ago). Simultaneously, moderates are alarmed that homicides more recently increased 36% from 2019 to 2022. Same 2022 stats, different base years, thus different presentations.
The one thing both political groups have in common is that their statistics all rely on the same sources. SFPD’s Compstat and SFPD’s Dashboard track crimes in San Francisco and are tabulated in a manner that conforms with the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR).
I worked in SFPD for over 20 years, and it wasn’t until this past month that it occurred to me that the crimes that have recently increased the most, selling fentanyl, the confiscation of guns, and shoplifting are not tallied as crimes in SFPD’s stats. This means that both the progressives and moderates are fighting to spin narratives based on incomplete and inadequate data.
My quiz on whether particular crimes are counted in SFPD’s stats?
Question #1: Are there criminal acts occurring here that are accounted for in SFPD stats?
Answer: No. This is what tourists and commuters see when they arrive in San Francisco. It is what discourages them from venturing into once-safer neighborhoods. However, without more information, and despite this gathering, there is no specific crime that SFPD can make an arrest on. But I am sure there are fentanyl sales and guns within a few feet of this gathering.
Ironically, sources have informed me that SFPD is not allowed to use the federal building to conduct surveillance and make arrests on the drug transactions occurring here. Gavin, along the lines of bringing CHP into the Tenderloin, maybe you can talk to Nancy about allowing SFPD access to this building?
Question #2: Will the guns in this SFPD arrest be counted in SFPD’s crime stats?
Answer: Nope. The FBI UCR states weapons are only tabulated in arrest data, not in total crimes. Thus, if SFPD seizes 1,000 guns in 2023, it will have zero impact on the total crimes reported in either SFPD’s Compstat or SFPD’s Dashboard.
Question #3: Is the seizure of fentanyl from arrested drug dealers, or when an undercover SFPD officer purchases fentanyl directly from a dealer included SFPD’s crime stats?
Answer: Nope. The FBI UCR states narcotics are similarly only tabulated in arrest data, not in the total crime statistics. Thus, if SFPD seizes 100+ kilos of fentanyl in 2023, it will have zero impact on SFPD’s reported crimes per SFPD Compstat or SFPD Dashboard.
Fifteen years ago, if officers arrested a single person with a kilo of narcotics, it was considered a great month for the Department. By 2021, per the Chronicle’s Heather Knight, SFPD was seizing a kilo per week of narcotics, half of which was fentanyl. By 2023, both SFPD and CHP are each seizing a kilo of drugs per week.
A kilo of fentanyl is composed of 1,000 grams, which can be divided into 4,000 quarter gram servings.[i] Those 4,000 servings, multiplied by only a kilo per week (not the two that are seized) translates to 200,000 potential transactions per year. Conservatively assuming SFPD only seizes half the fentanyl coming into the tenderloin, and you arrive at potentially 500,000 fentanyl transactions per year– that are crimes– but do not appear in San Francisco’s crime statistics. If those 500,000 crimes were to be included in the 50,000 crimes SFPD reports annually, it would increase the total reported crimes tenfold. Talk about understating crime!
Note: CHP’s success comes from the fact they do not have to comply with SF Police Commissioner Max Carter-Oberstone’s restrictions on enforcing traffic laws that he has campaigned to make SFPD abide by. And, CHP does not have to answer to the oversight department monitoring SFPD. Think about how many people die from fentanyl because of Max Carter-Oberstone’s efforts to block SFPD from replicating CHP’s effectiveness in disrupting the fentanyl trade.
Question #4:
a) You walk into Walgreens, and you see a person walking out carrying a sack of items without paying.
b) You see a clerk make a citizen’s arrest of a person walking out Walgreens without paying. The clerk holds the thief until SFPD arrives and issues a traffic citation.
c) A Walgreens clerk watches someone walk out of the store with over $1,000 in inventory. The Walgreens clerk calls SFPD to report the theft.
Do any of these shoplifting crimes appear in SFPD’s crime stats?
Answer: No, none of these crimes are included in SFPD’s crime stats. While the FBI does include shoplifting stats for other cities, because of the volume, SFPD only counts shoplifting crimes if it turns violent or the thief has a warrant. Thus, for 2022, under this criterion, SFPD reported only 2,785 shoplifting offenses. That translates to only 7.6 shoplifting crimes per day for the entire city.
Think about it, numerous stores are vacating San Francisco because of thefts and YouTube is full of videos of San Francisco shoplifting incidents. Yet, progressives like the Chronicle’s Susie Neilson, other Chronicle writers, and the Davis Vanguard newsgroup run with these 7.6 violent shoplifting crimes per day as justification that Prop 47 has not emboldened crime. It’s as misleading as counting traffic accidents that result in a fatality as representing the total fender benders that occur in San Francisco.
In July 2021, I interviewed a Walgreens’ security guard who said he catches an average of 15 shoplifters per day. If you extrapolated those 15 shoplifting crimes per day, to one store in each supervisorial district, it would exceed the total crimes SFPD reports. But we all know shoplifting is even worse than that.
Question #5: You are asleep in bed when someone enters and burglarizes your home, which is called a “hot prowl.” Does SFPD count this in their violent crime statistics?
Answer: No, not as a violent crime, but as a nonviolent property crime, like car break-ins. Hot prowls have recently increased dramatically in San Francisco. Statistically, SFPD makes no distinction between someone entering your house while you sleep versus a burglar breaking into an abandoned warehouse.
Charles Schwab & Company
Two weeks ago, while the stock market was open, I tried to enter the lobby of the financial district, Post and Kearney branch of Charles Schwab. I could see people in the lobby, but the door was locked. After I banged on the door, I was finally let in.
At only its downtown branch, Schwab, which once was headquartered in SF, must now lock their doors. There is doorbell to let employees know customers want to enter, but someone had stolen the doorbell. I was told the doorbell stealing happens repeatedly. Schwab does not accept cash, so the employees can’t possibly fear being robbed.
Schwab’s precautions are indicative of two things: 1) San Franciscans’ fear of the mentally ill is driving away business and businesses, and 2) the nuisance of the doorbell constantly being stolen is another unreported crime that does not appear in SFPD’s stats.
It is important for the residents of San Francisco to have a true sense on the state of crime in our city, and not the progressives’s spin that deviates from reality and is destroying our city.
[i] My back-of-the=envelope calculations are extremely conservative as the majority of fentanyl sales are for less than a quarter gram.
Once again great information from Lou B. Mind boggling that this is what we are living with. What we never hear about is the effect of this on law abiding citizens. We are treated like trash by all levels of government. Pay your taxes and shut up is what we are being told.
Did we vote for this? Or are ALL ELECTIONS really rigged selections….there is zero chance of saving SF..IN FACT there is zero chance of saving commiefornia as long as we sit in our lazyboys hoping for a better day..thanks for the update lou.._the Marxist mob is fully in charge.