Examiner’s Editor Duran: Deceiving Readers with Disinformation
Homicides have dropped 100% under DA Jenkins-- per Duran’s statistical methods
During the morning commute of Monday September 27, 2021, Ernesto Samano allegedly shot and killed a man at 9th and Mission Streets. SFPD arrested Samano before nightfall. Exactly one year later, on September 27, 2022, per SFPD’s Dashboard, there were no homicides on that day. Thus, under District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, technically homicides dropped 100% when comparing a single day from both 2021 and 2022. Ridiculous? Yes! A valid statistic? Yes! Deceptive and misleading? Yes!
Statistics don’t lie, only Examiner does
Gil Duran identifies himself as “Editorial Page Editor of The Examiner,” so he is an outsized representative on the integrity of the Examiner’s columnists and writers.
On September 23, 2022, Duran tweeted (below) a link to his editorial claiming that “ Just in time for election season, San Francisco is confronting yet another spike in murders and shootings.” Duran’s editorial both attacked Jenkins and lauded Chesa Boudin.
Chesa Boudin, playing the victim, quickly re-tweeted Duran’s article.
Dissecting Duran’s numbers
First, Duran’s article was based on the following foundation: “Of course, violent crime has been at historic lows in San Francisco, but such arguments didn’t save Chesa Boudin.” Actually, homicides increased 36.5% from 2019, the year prior to Boudin, to Boudin’s last complete year (2021).
Second, like my single-day September 27th year-over-year comparison (above), Duran extrapolated two mid-month homicides to: “The five murders so far this month represent a 66% in increase over last September, which had three murders.”
However, per SFPD Dashboard:
· When the final numbers came in for September 2022, there were seven homicides just like in September 2021. Compared to the two-year 36.5% homicide surge under Boudin (graph above), DA Jenkins’s rightfully achieved a “plateau” in homicides.
· From the time Boudin left the DA’s office on July 7, 2022, until October 2, 2022, homicides have actually declined 12% from 17 to 15. Compared to the two-year 36.5% homicide surge under Boudin, it would be more appropriate to say Jenkins achieved a decline, rather than a “plateau.”
(Writer’s note for below: The Chronicle has notified me that SFGate is now independent of the Chronicle, so Ting’s article is not a reflection on the Chronicle.)
Ironically, today, the Chronicle’s Eric Ting looked at the same SFPD Dashboard that I am using as a source and wrote: “(As of September 25, 2022) Homicides saw the largest year-over-year percent increase of any crime in the city, increasing 20% since this time last year.” SFPD Dashboard contradicts Ting documenting that homicides actually declined from 40 to 39. Whatever Ting was smoking to manufacture a 20% increase from a decline, Boudin immediately retweeted Ting’s article to perpetuate the falsehood.
· When comparing Boudin’s 2022 term of January 1 through July 7th, to Jenkins’ July 7th through October 2nd tenure, larcenies have collapsed from increasing at a 22.1% year-over-year rate under Boudin, to only up 8.8% over the prior year’s numbers under Jenkins. During the same period, overall crime declined from an increasing rate of 10.7% under Boudin, to only increasing at a 4.6% rate under Jenkins.
Despite Duran’s propaganda, it sure looks like things are improving under Jenkins.
Both my claim that homicides dropped 100% under Jenkins and Duran’s claim that homicides are up 66%, though misleading, are technically not lies. However, Duran also wrote there is a “spike in shootings on city streets,” and this appears to be a fabrication.
Duran’s article is full of poll numbers, but he did not include a link or reference to the “spike in shootings.” In fact, per SFPD’s Compstat, which is only released on a monthly basis, it shows shootings actually declined from Boudin’s July/August 2021 tenure to Jenkins’ July/August 2022 term. SFPD hasn’t released September’s numbers yet.
Clearly, Duran’s column is based on misleading, nonexistent statistics, which translates to there must not be a logical, fact-based justification for supporting Boudin or DA candidate John Hamasaki. I am officially calling Duran out on his claim that shootings have surged under Jenkins. As the “Editorial Page Editor of The Examiner,” provide the authority for your claim, or admit you made the statistic up. Absent a response, Duran has no credibility, and please vote the opposite of whatever or whomever he endorses.
Ugh: November DA’s election is ranked choice
Despite both the Chronicle’s and Examiner’s cheerleading for Boudin, the outcome of the June 2022 recall was a clear message that a majority of San Francisco voters were unhappy with the increased crimes resulting from Boudin’s policies. However, this November’s election will return to the ranked choice voting system, with a tabulation method that is designed to split the majority’s view and open the door to extremist and disfavored candidates.
This article is not an endorsement of any candidate for DA. Duran’s article was an opening salvo on the progressives’ front to promote Hamasaki, a former public defender, with no prosecutorial experience, and famous for erasing his racist and vulgar tweets.
Per the SF Department of Elections (frequently asked questions), under ranked choice voting, you do not have to list three candidates. Considering there will be an intense push by the Examiner to promote Hamasaki as their DA candidate, it will be essential for those of us that make up the majority to spread the word that Hamasaki’s name should not be selected on your ranked choice ballot—not at all!!!
This fall, the majority must be more engaging than in 2019, when Boudin was elected despite 64.4% of the San Francisco voters selecting someone else as their first choice.
Previous articles by Lou can be found here
Good work LOU.. keep exposing the LIARS and cheats on the regressive left. Lying is all they know. The cabal has destroyed the CITY and the state.Vote them out people, it’s your last chance.
I give more validity to the “Dweeb” writing news from his mother’s basement than to the Frisco Pravda to say nothing about the rest of the MSM.